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Forecast for the week of July 3, 2023

Please enjoy this complimentary mortgage rate forecast provided to keep you informed of where interest rates may be headed, and to help you gain the advantage in securing low rates and payments.

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Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates moved higher

Mortgage rates moved higher last week as stronger than expected economic data combined with the lowest unemployment claims in almost 2 years caused markets to price in a higher chance the Fed will raise rates some more this year.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates could be volatile

Mortgage rates could be volatile this week after the 4th of July Independence Day holiday. There will be lots of labor market data this week, as well as the release of the minutes from last month's Fed meeting. Rates are much more likely to move higher from here than lower.

What's affecting rates this week:

• Economic data: It is all about the labor market this week, with multiple reports showing different aspects of the labor market. We will get reports on job openings and turnover as well as the ADP private payroll report on Thursday, followed by the non farm payroll data, wage data and unemployment number on Friday. Labor market strength may push mortgage rates higher this week.
• Fed rate hikes: Markets are currently pricing in a rate hike at the July Fed meeting. The Fed has signaled more hikes are likely after that, but markets are not yet pricing them in. This week that could change, pushing rates higher.
  

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