For the week of November 7, 2022
Recap of last week: Rates crept higher
Average mortgage rates moved higher last week when Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed is likely to raise the policy fed funds rate higher in 2023 than was expected. Although Powell said that future rate hikes will come in smaller increases, it was the outlook of a higher end rate that caused mortgage rates to worsen last week.
Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could move higher
This week we will get the October CPI consumer inflation data, which could pressure mortgage rates to move higher. Expectations are that inflation will show some signs of decreasing, but unless this report shows inflation has moved significantly lower, it will be perceived to support the higher Fed rate hiking and is not good for mortgage rates. Only a surprisingly big drop in inflation would support rates improving this week, which is risky to hope for.
What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: There is not a lot of data this week, but the CPI inflation data on Thursday is a big report and could cause a shake up in rates. Strong inflation data will hurt mortgage rates.
- Veterans Day: Markets will be closed Friday, as will be many lenders. Lenders tend to set rates more conservatively over long holiday weekends as well.
