Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates continued to climb 👎
Mortgage rates rose last week as the 10yr Treasury yield moved higher and mortgage bonds, which are the true basis of mortgage rates, dropped to the worst levels since July.
This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Expect Volatility ⚠️
Mortgage rates could be volatile this week, reacting to economic and labor market data, particularly Friday's BLS jobs report. A strong jobs report could push rates to their highest levels in months, even with next week's anticipated Fed policy rate cut. Remember, the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, and the upcoming cut has already been factored in by the market.
What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic and labor data: Multiple reports this week will highlight the health of the economy and labor market. If Friday's BLS jobs report comes in strong for a second consecutive month, it could push mortgage rates higher.
- Inflation data: Thursday’s PCE inflation report, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, will be closely watched. Persistent inflation could add pressure to mortgage rates.
- The election: Markets are reacting to speculation around next week's election and its potential impact on the economy, contributing to rate volatility.