For the week of September 19, 2022
Recap of last week: Rates got worse
Average mortgage rates got worse last week after consumer inflation data didn't show inflation was going down as fast as markets were speculating. The higher inflation data led markets to price in larger expected Fed rate hikes this month and at future meetings, pushing mortgage rates near the highest levels seen in years.
Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could improve
The Fed meeting this week is our best shot at seeing mortgage rates improve, although how much rates will go down is still anyone's guess. Rates have moved higher because the economy is not slowing down as much as expected, despite the Fed raising rates since March. Speculation of higher Fed rate hikes heading into 2023 will continue to keep rates at elevated levels.
What's affecting rates this week:
- The Fed: The Fed meeting this week will conclude on Wednesday with a Fed policy statement that will include a rate hike, currently expected to be .75% by most but may be a full point by some forecasts. Mortgage rates have already priced in the increase and will not move higher on the Fed rate hike, but instead are likely to improve at least slightly. We will also see the Fed's rate forecast heading into 2023, and Fed Chair Powell's press conference.
