Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates moved lower 👍
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower last week after jobs data showed the labor market continues to cool, making a Fed rate cut at this month's meeting almost guaranteed.
This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could improve 👍
Mortgage rates could improve a bit more this week if inflation data shows inflation continuing to move lower, but we shouldn't look for big drops in rates yet. Next week will bring the Fed meeting, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, where we will more likely see mortgage rates react.
What's affecting rates this week:
- Inflation data: Wednesday brings consumer inflation data while Thursday brings wholesale inflation data. It is likely that these reports will show that inflation continues to move lower, which is good for mortgage rates.
- The Fed: Although the Fed doesn't meet until next week, markets are currently pricing in the idea that the Fed will start cutting rates with a quarter point rate cut at this meeting. If markets were to anticipate a larger cut, such as a half point cut, we could see mortgage rates move lower in anticipation. However, that doesn't seem likely at this point, with markets instead anticipating bigger cuts later this year.