Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates slightly lower 👍
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower on the week, but not by much, and were basically unchanged throughout the week before heading into the Labor Day holiday.
This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could be volatile ⚠️
Mortgage rates will react to jobs data this week, and any signs that the labor market is weakening will help mortgage rates move lower. However, although it is unlikely to happen this way, if markets were to get any surprises showing the labor market is not as weak as anticipated it could see rates react negatively and move higher on the week.
What's affecting rates this week:
- Labor market data: Wednesday brings the job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS), and on Thursday we will see unemployment claims and the ADP private payroll report. But it is Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs data that will cause the most movement in mortgage rates this week.
- Fed rate cuts: Markets will be looking for the jobs data to support the speculation that the Fed will need to start cutting its policy rate at this month's Fed meeting. If the data shows the labor market is weakening worse than expected, speculation of a bigger Fed rate cut could help mortgage rates.