Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates slightly better 👍
Last week saw rates improve marginally, but not by much despite data showing the lowest inflation since spring 2021.
This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates should hold steady 👍
Rates are not likely to move much this week, but any moves are more likely to happen near the end of the week. Markets have shifted to expectations of only a quarter point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, after speculating that the weak labor market data earlier this month would spur a half point cut or more. Mortgage rates move ahead of actual Fed cuts, and improved earlier this month on the speculation of coming cuts.
What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: There is very little data this week that will affect mortgage rates, basically only an early report on Thursday.
- Fed minutes: The minutes from the Fed's last meeting come out on Wednesday, although we shouldn't see rates react much to the news.
- Powell speech: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking from the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday morning, and markets will be listening for signals of future Fed rate cuts. It is unlikely that Powell tips his hand much, and will likely signal Fed rate cuts are coming but will be data dependent.