Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates moved higher
Mortgage rates looked like they might get a little better midweek when consumer inflation came in as expected. But later in the week, rates moved higher after wholesale inflation showed a much bigger jump than expected, mostly because of tariffs.
This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could creep higher
Mortgage rates may edge higher this week as doubts grow over a September Fed rate cut. All eyes are on Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, a stage he used last year to signal coming cuts. For now, the outlook suggests rates are more likely to rise than fall this week.
What’s affecting rates this week:
- The Fed: Powell is likely to set the table for a possible September Fed rate cut, but not commit to one like he did last year. Instead he will likely discuss the risk of recent wholesale inflation trickling down to consumers, and say any cuts would be data dependent. If Powell’s comments make markets doubt rate cuts, mortgage rates could end the week higher.
- Market sentiment: Mortgage rates dropped after weak jobs data a couple weeks ago, as markets expected Fed rate cuts. Now that confidence in those cuts is fading, rates could start to climb again.