Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates improved
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower last week despite a lack of any major economic data as markets continued to speculate the Fed would begin cutting its policy rate in September and would cut multiple times this year.
This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could be volatile
Mortgage rates could move either higher or lower this week, depending on how inflation readings come in for last month and if it affects markets' expectations for Fed rate cuts. Expectations for Fed rate cuts jumped after last month’s jobs report revealed major downward revisions to job growth in recent months, and if inflation comes in higher it could cast doubts about the cuts.
What’s affecting rates this week:
- Inflation: Markets will be watching for signs that tariffs are driving prices higher, as hotter-than-expected inflation could challenge expectations of a September Fed rate cut. Higher inflation would push mortgage rates up, while tame inflation could help them improve.
- Economic data: Other data this week will gauge the economy’s strength and influence mortgage rates. Weakness could nudge rates lower, while resilience may keep them steady or push them slightly higher.