Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates slightly better 👍
Mortgage rates ended the week just slightly better after the Fed's favored gauge of inflation, the personal consumption expenditure price index, came out showing inflation continues to move lower, opening the door for rate cuts.
This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates likely to improve 👍
This week is expected to be good for mortgage rates, with the Fed unlikely to cut its policy rate yet but more likely to signal cuts could start at the next meeting. There is also a lot of labor market data this week that could support upcoming Fed rate cuts, and could help mortgage rates improve this week.
What's affecting rates this week:
- Labor market data: The week is full of data, but the two most important reports for mortgage rates are the job opening and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday, and the BLS jobs data and unemployment number on Friday.
- The Fed: The two-day Fed meeting concludes on Wednesday at 2pm ET, where the Fed is likely to leave rates unchanged but signal cuts could be coming. Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET is when markets are likely to react most, setting up possible rate reprices Wednesday afternoon and better rates on Thursday morning when lenders set rates.