Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates worsened 👎
Mortgage rates started to move higher last week after data showed more jobs were created than forecast for June, and unemployment ticked lower. Although there were signs of labor market weakness when the details were examined, the stronger headline numbers pressured mortgage rates higher to end the week, as they ended all speculation of a Fed rate cut happening at the July meeting. The passing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act had little effect on rates, as markets had already priced in the expected increases to Treasury debt to pay for the bill.
This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could move higher 👎
There is very little economic data this week, and after seeing rates move lower through the end of June, we could see them creep higher heading into next week’s inflation data. While it’s unlikely we’ll see rates make big moves higher, it’s also unlikely they’ll return to last week’s best levels.
What’s affecting rates this week:
- Tariff talk: Headlines this week about tariffs will play a small role in markets, trickling down to an even smaller effect on mortgage rates.
- Economic data: It’s actually the lack of data that will play a role this week, leaving rates to drift higher.