For the week of June 13, 2022
Recap of last week: Rates moved higher
Rates moved quite a bit higher last week, as investors rushed to price in more aggressive Fed rate hikes after Friday's inflation data came in hotter than expected. Since mortgage rates are based on the pricing of mortgage bonds and not on the Fed funds rate, we see the resulting higher rates now as markets react and not when the Fed actually raises rates.
Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates will be volatile
Mortgage rates this week are likely to be volatile as investors react to the news coming from the Fed at this week's Fed meeting. Markets try to price in Fed moves before they happen, and this caused mortgage rates to move sharply. If the Fed calms investors' fears, we could actually see rates improve this week. However, if investors are concerned the Fed will have to raise rates faster to curb inflation, we could see mortgage rates react negatively to the news and move higher.
What's affecting rates this week:
- Inflation. Last week's higher than expected inflation data has sent rates rising.
- The Fed. Rates will move according to market reactions to this week's Fed meeting, including how much the Fed raises the policy rate, the Fed members' forecast of future rate hikes, and Fed Chair Powell's press conference.
