Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates basically unchanged 👎
Mortgage rates were just as volatile as expected last week, improving midweek on signs of a weakening economy, then giving back all those gains after stronger-than-expected BLS jobs data on Friday highlighted continued labor market strength. Although rates ended the week unchanged, this gets a thumbs down because rates couldn't hold the improvements.
This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could creep higher 👎
There isn't likely to be too much movement in rates early in the week, but Wednesday's consumer inflation data kicks off more activity on the economic calendar. If inflation comes in hotter than last month's readings, it could pressure rates to start moving slightly higher.
What's affecting rates this week:
- Inflation: Traders are expecting to see inflation come in hotter in May, which would mark the first increase in four months. This week's inflation reports will also offer the Fed a final look at the impact of tariffs ahead of this month's Fed meeting.
- Tariffs and trade war: Markets continue to react to changes in trade and tariff policy, which can create some volatility in day-to-day mortgage rate pricing.