For the week of April 17, 2023

Recap of last week: Rates slightly higher 👎
Rates were up a little bit from recent lows, but not by much. Rates moved higher early in the week, then were a little better on Wednesday after the inflation data showed inflation has fallen to the lowest level since May 2021 before moving up a bit as the week ended. Although slightly worse than the week before, rates are still well below March highs.

Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could creep higher 👎
Right now the door is open for rates to creep a bit higher this week, as expectations shift that the Fed will not need to cut rates as quickly as was previously expected. If markets don't think the Fed will need to cut rates to fight off a coming recession, we are unlikely to see any big improvements in rates this week.

What's affecting rates this week:
- Fed outlook: Mortgage rates are pricing in an expectation that the Fed will raise its policy rate .25% at the May 3rd meeting, and then pause hiking rates. Changes in the expectations of future Fed rate cuts could influence mortgage rates this week.
- Fed speakers: A lot of speeches this week, some may catch the attention of markets and influence the expectations of which direction the Fed will go next.
- Economic data: No big data to worry about this week.