Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Slight improvement 👍
Mortgage rates did improve last week, although not by much. Rates started the week off a bit worse, but improved following the Fed meeting and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. The Fed kept its policy rate unchanged, but a majority of Fed members still forecast two policy rate cuts this year. Mortgage rates were helped by the Fed's outlook that the economy could be weaker this year than previously thought. A weak economy helps keep rates low or move them lower.
This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could move higher 👎
After improving last week, we could see mortgage rates creep higher this week as concerns ease over tariffs taking effect in April. The Fed's favored gauge of inflation, the PCE price index, comes out on Friday and could help rates end the week. It is not likely we’ll see rates improve much, if at all, this week.
What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: Fourth quarter GDP data comes out Thursday, but it's Friday's PCE price index inflation data that will have the biggest influence over mortgage rates this week.
- Tariffs: Markets are optimistic that President Trump's tariffs taking effect April 2nd will be more targeted and less of a drag on the economy.