Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates moved higher 👎
Mortgage rates rose last week, particularly on Friday, following the release of stronger-than-expected jobs data. The report showed a significant increase in job creation and a decline in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.1%. This robust labor market data pushed bond yields higher and led markets to anticipate that Fed policy rate cuts would be delayed until later in the year.
This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could move higher 👎
Mortgage rates could continue to climb this week, depending on inflation data. If inflation shows signs of increasing, concerns may grow that the Fed will be unable to lower its policy rate and might even need to consider hiking later in the year. Even if inflation remains stable, it's unlikely that mortgage rates will move lower from here.
What's affecting rates this week:
- Inflation data: Tuesday brings wholesale inflation numbers, but it is Wednesday's consumer inflation data that will have the biggest effect on mortgage rates this week.
- The Fed: Concerns that the Fed will not be able to further cut its policy rate this year could pressure mortgage rates higher.
- 10yr Treasury yield: If the 10yr yield gets near 5%, mortgage rates will move higher.