For the week of December 5, 2022
Recap of last week: Rates improved
Although we did see some volatility in rates to end the week as expected, rates improved overall last week. The main reason we saw rates improve was Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday, which gave markets the impression that the Fed may not hike policy rates as high at the upcoming meetings as he led them to believe during his last press conference.
Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates not likely to move much
Rates are not likely to move much this week, as markets wait for two big events next week instead - the CPI inflation data and the Fed's next meeting. Although we may see some movement from day-to-day, it isn't likely we see rates make any significant move higher or lower.
What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: We aren't likely to see too much of a response to most of the data this week, but Friday's wholesale inflation data should be watched. It won't have the same effect that the CPI consumer inflation report will have next week, but it could affect rates for Friday.
- The Fed: Fed members are in a blackout period ahead of next week's meeting, but markets will still adjust based on expectations of how high the Fed will raise policy rates heading into 2023. Current expectations are 5% by May.
