For the week of October 23, 2023

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates moved higher 👎
Mortgage rates last week moved quite a bit higher, proving the idea that we've seen mortgage rates peak was still a bit premature. Rates were pushed higher when retail sales numbers came in stronger than expected, and when Fed officials made comments that supported the idea that the Fed will keep rates higher in 2024 than was previously expected.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates may continue higher 👎
It is unlikely we see rates improve this week, despite seeing how much they have moved higher recently. It is more likely that we see mortgage rates continue to creep a bit higher, especially if we see the 10yr Treasury yield break above 5% and hold there.

What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: This week includes Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers, as well as another inflation report on Friday. It is unlikely that this data will help rates improve though.
- 10yr Treasury yield: Although mortgage rates are not directly controlled by the 10yr yield, they are influenced by it. Increased supply of Treasuries have pushed yields higher, with the 10yr rate crossing 5% for the first time in 16 years. It is unlikely for bond yields to fall anytime soon, instead pressuring rates higher.