For the week of October 16, 2023

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates improved 👍
For the first time in weeks we saw mortgage rates improve, despite inflation readings that came in at expectations or slightly higher than was expected.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates may worsen 👎
This week we may see rates lose some ground, giving back some of last week's improvements. We have likely seen mortgage rates peak and hit their worst levels, but we could revisit those levels over the coming weeks before falling again. Rates are likely to move up and down within a small window as we head into the Fed meeting at the end of the month, rather than move significantly higher or lower from here.

What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: There are few reports this week, but Tuesday's retail sales data has the most chance of affecting rates. A strong reading which points to a resilient economy could pressure rates early in the week.
- Fed speakers: Fed members will be on a blackout period starting on Saturday, ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting, but this week there will be lots of Fed members out speaking which could impact mortgage rates. A message that the Fed will hold rates higher for longer could pressure rates slightly higher from here.