For the week of August 22, 2022
Recap of last week: Rates got worse
Average mortgage rates did get worse last week as we forecasted, as global inflation data spooked markets and expectations grew that September's Fed rate hike would have to be higher to fight inflation. Mortgage rates react early to expected Fed rate hikes, and moved higher.
Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could see some volatility
Mortgage rates will likely get worse through the beginning of the week, but it won't be until Friday that we know if rates could rebound after recently moving higher. Reactions to Friday's inflation report and comments from Fed Chair Powell from Jackson Hole will decide if rates improve or continue higher.
What's affecting rates this week:
- The Fed: The Fed will hold it's annual Jackson Hole symposium this week, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Friday. Markets will be looking for signals on how aggressive the Fed will be at this month's Fed meeting when hiking rates.
- Economic data: Some housing data this week that isn't likely to affect rates much, but GDP data on Wednesday and inflation data on Friday are likely to affect rates. Concerns of inflation and a strong inflation report would be bad for rates, but concerns of recession would help rates move lower.
