For the week of August 15, 2022
Recap of last week: Rates slightly better
Average mortgage rates improved slightly last week after data came in showing both consumer and wholesale inflation may have peaked and could now start to move lower.
Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates may worsen
While rates are not likely to get significantly higher this week, we could see them get slightly worse if markets shift to anticipating a larger Fed rate hike at the September meeting. Right now markets are divided on whether the Fed will raise policy rates by .50 or .75, and mortgage rates will worsen on speculation of the larger hike.
What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: A full week of housing data will factor into traders concerns, but won't affect rates directly. Wednesday's retail sales data may cause some volatility that day.
- The Fed: Minutes from July's Fed meeting come out Wednesday, and markets will be looking for signals of how aggressive the Fed plans to be at the September meeting with the next policy rate hike.
- Technical indicators: Mortgage rates are based on the performance of mortgage bonds, and this week we have some technical indicators that point to bonds struggling to improve from here, which could cap rate improvements and instead cause rates to worsen.
