For the week of July 17, 2023

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates improved 👍🏻
Mortgage rates improved last week as both wholesale and consumer inflation came in better than expected, causing markets to bet that the Fed will not need to raise rates a second time before the end of the year.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates should be steady 👍🏻
Mortgage rates are not likely to move much this week, other than some normal small day-to-day movement. We aren't likely to see any big moves in rates ahead of the Fed meeting next week, with little in the way of economic data and the Fed speakers all on a blackout ahead of the meeting. There is a fairly good chance we could see rates improve a bit further with next week's Fed meeting, for those that have the time to wait and see.

What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: Tuesday brings a retail sales report that traders will look at for signs of how consumers are spending, but other than that there is no data this week that is likely to affect mortgage rates.
- The Fed: Although the Fed has made it clear that members expect a second rate hike this year, markets believe that inflation is coming down fast enough that a second hike won't be warranted. Next week's meeting could cement those beliefs or turn them around.