For the week of July 11, 2022

Recap of last week: Rates slightly worse
Average mortgage rates were slightly higher last week in a move that wasn't totally unexpected after seeing rates improve the previous couple of weeks. Rates are still significantly better than they were almost a month ago after hitting the highest levels seen since 2008.

Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could improve
This week mortgage rates will be most likely to move on Wednesday after the release of consumer inflation data. Last month this inflation data caused rates to skyrocket higher as inflation readings came in stronger than expected and markets panicked. It is possible we could see another strong reaction this month, depending on the data, but it is less risky that we will see rates jump this time because markets are already expecting larger Fed rate hikes at this month's meeting.

What's affecting rates this week:
- Inflation: This week brings consumer and wholesale inflation reports, and if inflation is higher than expected it could cause mortgage rates to worsen. However, if inflation shows signs of improving, it could help rates.
- Recession concerns: Fears that we are headed into a global recession continue to plague markets, and as fears increase it could help mortgage rates to move lower.