For the week of July 10, 2023

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates moved higher 👎
Mortgage rates continued marching higher last week as markets started pricing in a July Fed policy rate hike. Although the Fed doesn't set mortgage rates, rates react to Fed rate movement, often long before the Fed actually makes the moves. Last week's jobs data pointed to a still strong labor market, which supports a strong economy and makes it hard to bring down inflation.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could be volatile ⚠️
For a second week we could possibly see rates make big moves, this week because of the consumer inflation data coming out on Wednesday and to a lesser extent the wholesale inflation data on Thursday. If the data points to a bigger drop in inflation than expected, rates may benefit. However, a stubborn inflation reading could pressure rates higher.

What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: Inflation data this week will take center stage, but we will also see consumer sentiment data on Friday that could influence rates.
- Fed rate hikes: Markets are currently pricing in a rate hike at the July Fed meeting. The Fed has signaled more hikes are likely after that, but markets are not yet pricing them in. This week that could change, pushing rates higher.