Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates moved lower 👍
Rates were as volatile last week as expected, moving higher early in the week before falling after the Independence Day holiday. Despite more new jobs created than expected for last month, most of the week's jobs data pointed to a softening labor market, supporting the idea that the Fed could start cutting rates in September.
This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could improve, but there is risk ⚠️
Rates are expected to get at least a little bit better this week as inflation data shows inflation continues to move lower. However, there is risk that if we get a surprise increase in inflation it would push rates higher on the week.
What's affecting rates this week:
- The Fed: Fed Chair Powell will testify on the economy in front of Congress this week, as he does twice a year. If his comments lead markets to believe the Fed is likely to cut rates this year, it will help hold rates at these levels or improve.
- Inflation data: Consumer inflation data comes out Thursday and will have the biggest effect on rates this week, with wholesale inflation data coming out on Friday. If inflation continues to show signs of cooling, that will support Fed rate cuts later this year and help mortgage rates.