For the week of June 24, 2024

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates unchanged 👍
Rates were basically unchanged last week, not only for the week but with very little movement day-to-day. Overall it was a very quiet week for rates.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates may improve slightly 👍
Mortgage rates shouldn't move much this week, but could improve a little bit if this week's inflation data comes in as expected. Keep in mind though that we could see a lot more volatility next week with labor data and the Independence Day holiday.

What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: There's really not a lot happening this week although Thursday will bring the final GDP numbers for the first quarter. It isn't likely this data has a big effect on mortgage rates though.
- Inflation data: Friday will bring the Fed's favored inflation gauge, which is expected to show the slowest inflation since late last year and open the door to possible Fed rate cuts later this year.
- The Fed: Mortgage rates will remain near the current levels as long as markets believe the Fed will cut rates later this year. Markets are currently expecting the Fed to cut rates starting in September and to cut rates twice by the end of the year. If markets believe the economic and labor market data would require the Fed to cut rates sooner or more aggressively, that would help mortgage rates improve. That is why next week's labor market data will be important to mortgage rates.