For the week of May 22, 2023

Recap of last week: Rates slightly worse 👎
The outlook for mortgage rates unexpectedly shifted last week, as Fed members made it clear that they expected to pause rate hiking in June but were leaving the door open for more hikes in the future if needed. A couple of weeks ago markets had been pricing in Fed rate cuts to begin as early as July, but markets now expecting the Fed to hold rates longer. This shift in outlook has pressured mortgage rates to slowly move higher.

Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could move higher 👎
With little in the way of economic data and a holiday weekend, it isn't likely we see a change in the current outlook and we could see rates creep slightly higher this week. Rates unlikely to move lower again until the Fed outlook changes.

What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: Little data this week that is likely to affect rates, other than Friday's PCE inflation report.
- Debt ceiling talks: Although concerns of a U.S. default due to not raising the debt ceiling are having some effects on markets, there hasn't been a spillover into mortgage rates yet and likely wouldn't be unless we start to actually default on debt payments.
- Fed speakers: Fed members speaking throughout the week could continue to cause rates to creep higher.