For the week of May 15, 2023

Recap of last week: Rates slightly worse 👎
Although mortgage rates did improve midweek after data showed both consumer and wholesale inflation continued to drop, rates moved higher on Friday to end the week just slightly worse.

Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates likely to be basically unchanged 👍🏻
This week mortgage rates are likely to move slightly day-to-day, but the overall moves for the week are likely to be small. Mortgage rates are in a tight window right now, and will likely stay that way through the end of the month unless something unforeseen or unexpected happens such as the U.S. defaulting on its debt. Although rates are expected to slowly move lower over time, it doesn't look likely we will see any big moves lower this week.

What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: A quiet week for data, reports such as Tuesday's retail sales data will not have a big affect on rates this week.
- Debt ceiling talks: Although concerns of a U.S. default due to not raising the debt ceiling are having some effects on markets, there hasn't been a spillover into mortgage rates yet and likely wouldn't be unless we start to actually default on debt payments.
- Fed speakers: Fed members speaking throughout the week could cause small movements in rates.