Recap of last week: Rates were unchanged 👍🏻
Although moving slightly day-to-day, rates ended the week unchanged last week as was forecasted to happen.
Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates will be volatile ⚠️
Mortgage rates are likely to start the week of unchanged before becoming volatile on Wednesday with this month's Fed meeting and subsequent policy statement, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference. On Thursday we could see some reaction in our markets to rate increases at the European Central Bank which could influence mortgage rates, and on Friday we get jobs data which could also cause more volatility.
What's affecting rates this week:
- The Fed: The Fed is expected to raise its policy rate by .25% this meeting, marking the 10th straight increase, which won't affect mortgage rates as markets have already priced in the move. However, markets will be watching for signs that the Fed may be done hiking for now, which could help rates, and will closely follow Fed Chair Powell's press conference following the meeting.
- Economic data: The jobs data coming out on Friday is likely to affect mortgage rates, with signs that the labor market remains strong pressuring rates higher while any signs of weakness will help mortgage rates improve.