For the week of April 19, 2021
Recap of last week: Rates slightly improved
Average mortgage rates improved slightly last week, after rate markets improved despite data showing inflation was rising. The increase to inflation was expected though, and fell within the range that markets have already priced in when rates rose a few weeks ago.
Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates will remain low
Rates tend to move in cycles, and we're likely to see some pullback this week that would see slightly worse rates on average after improving steadily the last few weeks. There isn't any economic data this week that will affect rates though, and market sentiment is still positive, so even if we do see rates worsen it shouldn't be much. In fact, there is a much smaller chance that we could see rates slightly improve this week, but the current technical indicators make that much less likely.
What's affecting rates this week:
- Fed stimulus: The Fed continues to buy Treasuries and mortgage bonds, helping to keep rates low.
- Bond technicals: Lenders set mortgage rates based on the pricing of mortgage bonds, and we could see bonds lose some ground this week pushing rates slightly higher.
- Market sentiment: Investors are comfortable investing in bonds at these yields, helping keep rates low.
