For the week of April 4, 2022

Recap of last week: Rates slightly better
Average mortgage rates last week actually improved slightly, a welcome turn of events after seeing rates move higher over recent weeks. The moves were small though, mainly providing a slight improvement to rebate pricing rather than seeing actual rate improvement. Rebate pricing is the credit your lender can provide towards closing costs, or the cost to get a better rate (often referred to as "points").

Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could be volatile
Mortgage rates are not likely to improve much from here, and we could see rates worsen on Wednesday when the minutes are released from last month's Fed meeting. Markets will be looking for signals from the Fed on how it will be reducing its balance sheet - meaning that after buying trillions of dollars of bonds during the pandemic the Fed will begin selling off those assets, which increases supply of bonds and can drive prices down, which drives mortgage rates higher.

What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: Nothing to note this week, other than the Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday.
- Russia/Ukraine: Still plays a role in markets, expected to continue this week.
- The Fed: Markets still trying to anticipate what the Fed will do to curb inflation.