For the week of March 21, 2022
Recap of last week: Rates got worse
Mortgage rates continued to move higher last week, pressured by inflation and increasing bond yields. Although rising rates coincided with last week's Fed policy rate increase, the Fed doesn't directly control mortgage rates. Rates showed signs of stabilizing on Thursday and Friday, but couldn't hold.
Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could creep higher
Mortgage rates are off to a poor start to the week, as markets prepare for the Fed to reduce its balance sheet and continue raising policy rates at future Fed meetings. Mortgage rates are directly tied to mortgage bonds, which lenders use to replenish funds to lend. As bond yields rise, so do mortgage rates. The likely best case scenario for this week would be rates remaining the same.
What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: It is a quiet week and there is no economic data that should affect rates this week.
- Ukraine/Russia: Although playing a role in rates, shouldn't cause any sudden moves in rates unless something major happens to end or escalate the war.
- Fed speakers: Various members of the Fed will be speaking this week, and could cause moves in mortgage rates as markets look for signs of when and how the Fed will begin reducing its balance sheet.
