For the week of March 13, 2023

Recap of last week: Rates slightly improved
Mortgage rates last week were creeping higher, but improved on Friday on news that Silicon Valley Bank had to be saved by the FDC. This news overshadowed the jobs data, what was expected to be the biggest event of the week. Mortgage rates benefited from traders seeking safety in the bond market, helping rates improve.

Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates moving lower
Mortgage rates will move lower this week, as concerns skyrocket over what is being called a "banking crisis" in the media. Whether truly a crisis or not, market reactions to this situation will help mortgage rates move lower.

What's affecting rates this week:
- Banking crisis: The unfolding reaction to this situation has markets expecting the Fed to lower rates in 2023 contrary to previous expectations that the Fed would raise rates. This is the primary factor in mortgage rates this week.
- The Fed: Mortgage rates are likely to move lower on updated expectations that the Fed will have to stop raising rates to fight inflation, and will even have to lower rates later in the year.
- Economic Data: Tuesday's CPI inflation data would have been a major event for mortgage rates before the current banking situation, but will now take a back seat.