For the week of March 7, 2022
Recap of last week: Rates slightly better
Average mortgage rates improved last week, but only by a small margin, as the war in Ukraine pushed investors to seek safety in bonds. Stronger sanctions against Russia early in the week helped rates improve before losing some ground Wednesday and Thursday. Friday's Russian attack of a Ukrainian nuclear power plant helped rates to improve again despite stronger than expected jobs data.
Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates likely to be volatile
Mortgage rates are likely to be volatile this week, with rates being slightly better or worse depending on global market reactions to developments in Ukraine. While rates may move slightly day-to-day, we shouldn't see any big moves higher or lower unless something major happens Ukraine. The Fed meets next week, and is likely to raise policy rates by a quarter percent. Surging oil prices driving up gas costs, along with sanctions against Russia could push inflation higher, hurting mortgage rates.
What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: Thursday's inflation data could affect rates, otherwise a quiet week.
- Russia/Ukraine: Both geopolitical events as well as concerns about sanctions and rising oil prices are the biggest factor for mortgage rates this week.
