For the week of February 21, 2022

Recap of last week: Rates slightly worse
Mortgage rates moved higher last week, but only slightly, as speculation of a larger Fed rate hike in March started to fade. Concerns about escalating tensions at the Russia/Ukraine border also kept rates from moving too much higher.

Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could improve slightly
Mortgage rates could see some volatility this week but ultimately end the week slightly better, as markets react to the unfolding situation at the Russia/Ukraine border. Concerns about Russia invading Ukraine could push investors to seek safe havens in bonds, which helps mortgage rates improve slightly. Also, belief that the Fed will not make a big splash when raising rates in March is gaining momentum, and could help rates improve slightly.

What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: Lots of data in a holiday shortened week could cause some volatility in mortgage rates this week, especially Friday's inflation data.
- The Fed: Mortgage rates may be helped this week by investors once again believing a smaller rate hike is more likely from the Fed at the March Fed meeting.
- Russia/Ukraine: Concerns that Russia will invade the Ukraine are mounting, pushing investors to the safety of bonds and helping mortgage rates.