For the week of February 20, 2024

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates moved higher 👎
Mortgage rates moved higher again last week, this time due to inflation coming in higher than expected. Inflation is not good for rates, and the report was made worse because it makes it unlikely the Fed will consider cutting rates till at least May and more likely June.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates may creep higher 👎
This week is likely to see mortgage rates move slightly day-to-day and possibly creep a bit higher by the end of the week. Rates will not drop significantly from here until we see some data showing the labor market and economy is weakening and inflation is falling, and we won't see that data until at least March.


What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: The minutes from last month's Fed meeting come out on Wednesday along with some economic reports on Thursday. There is nothing on Tuesday or Friday, and markets were closed on Monday.
- The Fed: Mortgage rates are not set by the Fed, but are strongly influenced by Fed actions. Rates were lower when markets were forecasting Fed rate cuts to start in March, and have moved higher as the chances of that happening have grown slim. Speculation now calls for Fed rate cuts to most likely start in June.
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