For the week of February 20, 2023

Recap of last week: Rates moved higher

Last week's inflation report showed that inflation is still decreasing, but not at a fast enough pace to satisfy markets. Recent economic data showing a resilient economy not ready to enter a recession has markets concerned that the Fed will continue raising rates into the middle of the year, which caused mortgage rates to move higher last week.

Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could continue higher

Increased concerns about a rebound in inflation and the Fed raising rates to fight it are pushing mortgage rates higher and making it unlikely we see them fall again in the near future. The current outlook is that rates could continue creeping higher back to the highs we saw last October.

What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: Friday brings another inflation report, the one that the Fed uses as its primary gauge of inflation. It is possible this report could pressure rates this week.
- Fed minutes: The minutes from last month's Fed meeting will be released on Wednesday, and if they show Fed members are in favor of more aggressive rate hiking, could pressure mortgage rates this week.
- Holiday: Markets were closed on Monday, and we could see more volatility than normal to start the week on Tuesday.