For the week of February 12, 2024

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap: Rates moved higher 👎
Mortgage rates crept just slightly higher last week, but didn't move much throughout the week as markets waited for this week's inflation data.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates will react to inflation data ⚠️
This week rates could move either way, depending on how the inflation data comes out. If inflation moves lower, markets will expect the Fed to react by cutting rates sooner this year and that would help mortgage rates move lower this week. However, if the inflation readings don't come in low enough, it could spook markets to listen to the Fed's message that it wants to hold rates longer, and that would push mortgage rates up as much as .25%.

What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: Tuesday brings the most important consumer inflation data, with retail sales data on Thursday and wholesale inflation on Friday. The inflation data will be affected by new factors used in seasonal adjustments, making it harder than normal to forecast what we may get for readings.
- Fed speakers: There will be more members of the Fed out speaking this week, and depending on how the data comes out they could have more of an effect on mortgage rates for the week.