For the week of January 23, 2023
Recap of last week: Rates were unchanged
Average mortgage rates improved slightly through the early part of the week, but gave back the gains to end the week basically unchanged. Mortgage rates remain well below the high mark set back in November when most consumers were facing rates in the mid-7s.
Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could worsen
This week could see mortgage rates could creep higher ahead of next week's Fed meeting. Rates aren't likely to make any big moves, but it is possible that rates could be slightly worse to end the week unless they get help from this week's economic data. It is next week's Fed meeting that will have the strongest influence on which direction mortgage rates move next.
What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: Housing data this week is unlikely to affect rates, but we will see some other economic data including the PCE inflation report on Friday that could influence rates. None of the data though should be especially bad for mortgage rates.
- The Fed: Current mortgage rates are based on the speculation that the Fed policy rate will peak at 4.75% by March. If markets start to believe that the Fed will raise the policy rate higher, based on strong economic data, it will pressure mortgage rates higher.
