For the week of January 9, 2023

Recap of last week: Rates improved
Mortgage rates improved last week after Friday's jobs data showed job growth came in better than expected while wage gains came in lower, and the ISM services gauge unexpectedly shrank signaling economic contraction. These two events combined shifted the outlook of how aggressive the Fed will be on future rate hikes, which helped mortgage rates improve.

Mortgage Rate Forecast: Rates could improve further
This week we could see rates take another step lower, if we get disinflationary CPI consumer inflation data on Thursday. Unless we get a surprise reading showing inflation has increased, rates should remain near these levels or improve this week.

What's affecting rates this week:
- Economic data: December's CPI inflation report comes out on Thursday and if it shows a third straight month of disinflation as is expected, could help push mortgage rates lower. However, a surprise increase in inflation would be bad for rates.
- The Fed: If markets continue to believe that the Fed will have to ease off future rate hikes and will be forced to start cutting rates in 2023, mortgage rates will benefit. However, if markets shift to speculating more aggressive Fed rate hikes, that will pressure mortgage rates higher.